FanPost

Gaming out the rest of the league

So we lost to City, is our title even remotely in danger?

Our lead is 12 points - i.e. 4 wins. United and City each have seven games left. If it gets to the point that there are four games left with a four game lead, then United wins*. That means, that out of seven chances, City need to have at least four games work out in which both they win and we lose, and that's just to tie us on points. We also have an 8 point lead in goal differential. So if United can win 3 games then we are pretty much safe no matter what City does.

City's remaining schedule:

  • West Brom
  • Wigan
  • Spurs
  • West Ham
  • Reading
  • Swansea
  • Norwich
Spurs are currently 4th in the league, West Brom is 8th, Swansea is 9th, and the rest are in the bottom half, so while lightning can and does strike any time, they're unlikely to drop more than a game. If they do that then United only need to win two, whereas in the reasonably likely event that they run the table, then United need to win 3

United's remaining games are against:

That's a more difficult list. Chelsea re currently 3rd, Arsenal 4th, West Brom 8th, Swansea 9th, so only 3 of them are in the bottom half of the league. But even just those 3 would be enough. Beating the higher ranked teams (which is eminently do-able for United) would just add icing onto the cake.

Draws are also possible, of course, but with so few remaining games nobody is likely to get enough draws to add up to the points for a full game so you can basically treat them as losses and the outcomes will be about the same.

So we should feel pretty good there.

This FanPost represents the view of the member who posts it and does not necessarily reflect the views of <em>The Busby Babe</em> or <em>SB Nation. </em>

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